美国经济

就业和物价

就业人口

就业人口长期数据

就业人口长期变化趋势

就业人口中期变化趋势

个人消费支出和通胀预期

• Measuring inflation trends: Why use different inflation measures for policy analysis? Congress has instructed the Federal Reserve to pursue monetary policies that promote maximum employment and price stability. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has determined that “inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures [PCE], is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate” for price stability.

国民生产总值和M2货币

GDP与M2长期总量

相关性

	US M2	US Nominal GDP	US Real GDP
US M2	1.000000	0.971953	0.940701
US Nominal GDP	0.971953	1.000000	0.992901
US Real GDP	0.940701	0.992901	1.000000

M2 Money Stock

The non-seasonally adjusted version of this weekly series: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Gross Domestic Product

Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output, is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Real Gross Domestic Product

Real gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.

Is nominal GDP always higher than real GDP?

GDP与M2中期总量

M2与GDP占比

通胀和利率

通胀与利率长期关系

相关性

	Interest Rates, Discount Rate	Inflation, Consumer Prices	10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate	10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
Interest Rates, Discount Rate	1.000000	0.750958	0.912987	0.493290
Inflation, Consumer Prices	0.750958	1.000000	NaN	NaN
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate	0.912987	NaN	1.000000	0.557077
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate	0.493290	NaN	0.557077	1.000000

通胀与利率短期趋势

Inflation, consumer prices for the United States

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used.

International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_10YEAR) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_10YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department.

M2变化与通胀预期

	M2	10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
M2	1.000000	-0.276181
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate	-0.276181	1.000000

股票市场

标普500与GDP

	S&P 500	US Nominal GDP	US Real GDP	Global GDP	Global GDP(DEF)	US M2	US Employees
S&P 500	1.000000	0.950186	0.929561	0.924548	0.902218	0.963456	0.861788
US Nominal GDP	0.950186	1.000000	0.992901	0.988820	0.982867	0.971953	0.945408
US Real GDP	0.929561	0.992901	1.000000	0.972173	0.974873	0.940701	0.973700
Global GDP	0.924548	0.988820	0.972173	1.000000	0.994301	0.982510	0.908089
Global GDP(DEF)	0.902218	0.982867	0.974873	0.994301	1.000000	0.962104	0.924298
US M2	0.963456	0.971953	0.940701	0.982510	0.962104	1.000000	0.856764
US Employees	0.861788	0.945408	0.973700	0.908089	0.924298	0.856764	1.000000

S&P500 & M2

	Median	90%	Current
0	15.420063	22.68774	0.211575

	Median	90%	Current
0	19.385576	20.404892	0.211575

Shiller's CAPE

	2021-04-01
CAPE	36.160000
MA 10 Years	27.209023

Buffett Indicator

	2021-04-16
GDP	21494.731000
WILL5000PR	43637.290000
Buffett_Indicator	203.013892
MA 10 Years	121.317742

资产价格

资产价格相关性

Symbol	CSI 300	BND	DBC	TIP	VNQ	S&P 500	HANG SENG INDEX	CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No
Symbol
CSI 300	1.000000	0.718611	-0.583419	0.699220	0.656613	0.749371	0.536408	-0.512308
BND	0.718611	1.000000	-0.551866	0.974320	0.820488	0.897090	0.334152	-0.757705
DBC	-0.583419	-0.551866	1.000000	-0.402673	-0.533818	-0.386527	-0.036146	0.514820
TIP	0.699220	0.974320	-0.402673	1.000000	0.767194	0.906170	0.339034	-0.739860
VNQ	0.656613	0.820488	-0.533818	0.767194	1.000000	0.867662	0.499803	-0.429863
S&P 500	0.749371	0.897090	-0.386527	0.906170	0.867662	1.000000	0.609434	-0.435914
HANG SENG INDEX	0.536408	0.334152	-0.036146	0.339034	0.499803	0.609434	1.000000	0.203748
CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No	-0.512308	-0.757705	0.514820	-0.739860	-0.429863	-0.435914	0.203748	1.000000